President Donald Trump said Thursday that he expects an agreement "over the next three to four weeks" to end the escalating trade war with China.

The most heated trade war is with China, and it’s there that I fear Trump has particularly miscalculated. He seems to be waiting for President Xi Jinping to cry uncle and demand relief, but that’s unlikely; instead, it may be the United States that will be most desperate to end the trade conflict.

Yes, the U.S. has the larger consumer economy. No, that won’t be enough to avoid major (and majorly self-inflicted) pain.