We study the short-run effects of import tariffs on GDP and the trade balance in an open-economy New Keynesian model with intermediate input trade. We find that temporary tariffs cause a recession ...

We quantify the macroeconomic effects of the tariff measures announced (but not entirely implemented yet) on Liberation Day (April 2nd, 2025) through the lens of a New-Keynesian two-country model ...

What is the optimal macroeconomic tariff when trade is imbalanced and the policy objectives go beyond social welfare and also include fiscal revenues, increasing the number of manufacturing jobs, and ...

We evaluate the aggregate effects of a change in tariffs on the US and world economies when tariff revenue is used to enact fiscal reform. Our model combines a standard international model of fiscal ...

We examine the labor market effects of AI chatbots using two large-scale adoption surveys (late 2023 and 2024) covering 11 exposed occupations (25,000 workers, 7,000 workplaces), linked to matched ...

U.S. income inequality has varied inversely with union density over the past hundred years. But moving beyond this aggregate relationship has proven difficult, in part because of limited microdata on ...

Using confidential administrative data from the U.S. Census Bureau we revisit how the rise in Chinese import penetration has reshaped U.S. local labor markets. Local labor markets more exposed to the ...

Using US Census data for 1990-2000, we estimate effects of NAFTA on US wages. We look for effects of the agreement by industry and by geography, measuring each industry's vulnerability to Mexican ...

In this paper, we investigate a neglected aspect of financial systems of many countries around the world: government ownership of banks. We assemble data which establish four findings. First, ...

We explore changes in product quality during France’s major liberalization episode of the mid-nineteenth century. Using new data and existing techniques from the international trade literature, we ...

In this paper, we establish a causal connection between two of the most salient social developments in the United States over the past decades: the opioid epidemic and the political realignment ...

Racial differences in mortality are large, persistent and likely caused, at least in part, by racism. While the causal pathways linking racism to mortality are conceptually well defined, empirical ...